Brazil can trade oil dependence for rising clean export era

Sao Paolo, 3 November 2025: Brazil’s world-leading clean power mix underpins a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lead the rising low-carbon export economy. But the country’s increasing reliance on oil exports, and ongoing challenges to address deforestation, threaten to erode its competitiveness in the growing green economy and its credibility as the COP30 host.

The Carbon Competitiveness: Brazil at the Net Zero–Trade Nexus report, from Net Zero Tracker, reveals that 78% of Brazil’s $397 billion in exports — supporting 6.6 million jobs — go to countries with net zero targets, showing their intent to decarbonise.

Key findings:

• Key Brazilian exports such as agriculture, metals and data centres are already carbon competitive. Backed by a grid that is almost 90% renewable — the cleanest in the G20 — Brazil is poised to lead the emerging low-carbon aluminium, green steel markets and booming data centre industry.
• Oil exports face steep decline. Brazil’s crude oil exports, valued at $40 billion and supporting over 71,000 jobs, are highly exposed - with 87% going to countries with net zero targets, which are actively working to phase out fossil fuels.
• China and the EU dominate Brazil’s trade outlook. Together, they account for over 40% of Brazil’s exports and 2.3 million jobs. As both markets tighten climate policies, they will increasingly reward lower-carbon suppliers.
• Deforestation-linked exports are under scrutiny. The EU’s new Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) puts $15 billion in annual exports and over 200,000 jobs at risk if  supply chains remain exposed to forest loss.
• Biofuels sector is ripe for expansion. Brazil’s pioneering ethanol and biodiesel sectors - which produce 22% of domestic transport fuels - are in high demand from hard-to-electrify industries, particularly aviation, shipping, and heavy-duty road transport.
• Carbon-intensive trade risks are rising. More than one million jobs depend on exports to jurisdictions with active Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs), including the EU and UK. Another 478,000 jobs are tied to markets considering similar measures.

John Lang, Lead, Net Zero Tracker (Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit), said:

“Brazil is uniquely positioned to turn its clean power into trade power. With vast renewable potential, industrial know-how and growing international influence, it can lead the next wave of green industrialisation. 

“But competition is heating up fast — and Brazil can’t lead the green economy while clinging to fossil markets. It must focus on building the new low-carbon industries of tomorrow.”

As the host of COP30 in Belém next month, Brazil has a platform to showcase its leadership on renewables, industrial decarbonisation and forest protection. The report finds that aligning trade and climate policy could transform Brazil from a commodity exporter into a clean energy and manufacturing hub for the global green economy.

Matt Elliott,  Consultant, the Net Zero Tracker (Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit), co-author of the report, said:

“The analysis shows a country at a crossroads - with its clean energy advantage pulling it toward booming green markets, while its growing dependence on oil exports ties it to industries the world is rapidly leaving behind.”

The opportunity—and the cost of inaction

The analysis shows that 266 major companies across Brazil’s top 10 export markets — worth $9.4 trillion in annual revenues — have Scope 3 net zero targets, meaning they will increasingly favour lower-carbon suppliers.

With coordinated policies on industry, energy and forest governance, Brazil could attract billions in new investment from global firms seeking to decarbonise their supply chains. For example, in May 2025, Chinese cleantech giant Envision announced a partnership to develop a Net Zero Industrial Park in Brazil, channelling the country’s abundant clean energy into the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

But Brazil’s progress could stall without decisive action to align its trade, energy, and forest policies. The report warns that inconsistent enforcement of deforestation laws, ongoing fossil exploration, and industrial inefficiencies could erode Brazil’s ‘carbon advantage’ just as net zero trade norms harden.

Mateus Simões, Vice-Governor, the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, said: 

"The global green economy starts locally, and that brings huge opportunities. Our action in Minas is already felt across the world – this year we exported critical minerals, including lithium, niobium and rare earths alongside biofuels to over 150 countries, many of which have net zero targets. These countries are looking to decarbonise their economies, which will only drive up demand for our sustainable solutions. What we do at the state level truly matters. By driving forward with competitive, net zero-aligned commodities, we’re helping power the decarbonisation of key global sectors and strengthening our resilience to geopolitical shocks.

"Brazil has all the ingredients to lead the clean energy transition. This report highlights our real progress and warns of the risks of inaction. This is a call to action."

Thomas Hale, Professor of Global Public Policy, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, said:

“As geopolitics and the energy revolution reshape global trade, the big question is what comes next. With the right leadership at home and partnerships abroad, Brazil can leverage its natural advantages into lasting competitiveness in green manufacturing and sustainable agriculture.”

About the analysis:

Carbon Competitiveness: Brazil at the Net Zero–Trade Nexus is the fourth in a series of analyses on the interface between global trade and climate commitments, with previous reports including India, South Africa and the UK. 

The reports all draw from the Net Zero Tracker’s unique, global dataset of climate commitments by national and subnational governments, and companies. The analysis cross references these commitments with (i) global trade flows, (ii) employment, and (iii) emissions data to offer new insights into the risks and opportunities for the three countries' export economies as global decarbonisation accelerates. The NZT database compiles data on the net zero targets of more than 4,000 global entities, including all nations that are parties to the UNFCCC, every region in the largest 25 emitting nations, all cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, and the world's largest 2,000 publicly-listed companies by annual revenue. 

About The Net Zero Tracker (NZT):

The Net Zero Tracker is the world’s most comprehensive and up-to-date database of public net zero commitments made by nations, states & regions, cities and major companies. It includes: 

• all UNFCCC member states and a selected number of territories;
• subnational states & regions in the 25 largest emitting countries; 
• all cities around the world with populations over 500,000;
• publicly listed companies that were listed in the Forbes Global 2000 in 2020;
• 100 of the world’s largest private companies. 

The NZT is a collaboration between The Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU); Data-Driven EnviroLab (UNC); NewClimate Institute; and Oxford Net Zero. 

About The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU):

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) is a non-profit organisation that supports informed debate on energy and climate change issues in the UK. 

The ECIU supports journalists, parliamentarians and other communicators with accurate and accessible briefings on key issues, and works with individuals and organisations that have interesting stories to tell, helping them connect to the national conversation.

For further information or to arrange a briefing 

Please contact Nick Hay, Communications Lead, the Net Zero Tracker: nick.hay@eciu.net +44 (0) 7378 250 228.

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